Oil movements 十月份期刊翻译-----错的请指正？ A year ago crude prices were falling sharply, losing more than $40/barrel (WTI) in just over a month. The extent of the (implied) decline in oil demand under way became clear after a time lag. Only later was the case being made by price movements confirmed by the statistics. This year crude futures have gone up by around $10/barrel over a similar period and the stats that might make the case for higher prices (after discount for dollar depreciation) are still work in progress. The news today that change in US g.d.p. turned positive in Q3 - and moved up at more than the anticipated rate - adds to the case file, but not more than that . OPEC moved quickly to adjust supply in response to falling prices last year. This year it has set a high threshold for a move in the other direction, including a clear-out of remaining floating storage. Latest estimates of near term oil flows do not indicate strengthening demand moving into the winter season. OPEC sailings in the first half of next month will be above the comparable October level, but not much higher. As predicted, it looks as though non-OPEC suppliers are set to capture most of any seasonal uplift in crude demand that happens. 在一年之前，原油的价格仅仅用一个多月的时间就下跌了四十多美元（美国西德克萨斯轻质原油价格）。对于原油需求的不断下降的趋势在经历了一段时间的挣扎后逐渐变得清晰。不久整个价格的变动就被统计数字所证实。 今年的原油期货在同季度每桶已经上涨了近十美元，而这些统计数据可能会使其价格更高，并且美元疲软也在继续。今天的新闻报道在第三季度美国的GDP好转并且比预想的增长的要快。这些都是原因，但是原因并不是仅仅是这些。 欧佩克在去年快速的调整生产来面对下滑的价格。今年欧佩克设定了一个更好的门槛对于其他的不动方向的举动，包括明确了剩余浮动储油。最新的估计表明近期内油流不会有一个强劲的需求随着进入冬季。欧佩克的输出量在下个月的前半个月可能会在十月份的水平之上，但是不会高太多。正如预料的那样看来非欧佩克成员国准备去捕捉任何原油需求出现季节性上扬的时候。 Recovery in sailings from the September low has been driven from the east. Sailings eastbound from the two major supply regions - Middle East and West Africa - account for practically all of the changes over the last two months, moving into the first half of November. In the second half of next month, it is quite likely that eastbound flows will move above year-ago, on the anniversary of the sharp decline in demand after the bank crash. 从九月份的低迷中复苏的石油运输航班从东边开始增多。东去的航班主要来着两个主要的供应地区-中东和西非-几乎占据了过去两个月所有的变化，并且持续到十一月的上旬。在十一月份的下旬，东向的油流会超过去年同期，从金融危机使得需求积极下降一周年的时候。 Meanwhile, there is little movement under way in westbound flows from the Middle East. Estimates of westbound sailings in first half November are below the October equivalents. Even last year, as the banking crisis unfolded, westbound sailings went up through the period from mid November to end year - following the normal seasonal path, if only to a limited extent. 同时，从中东西去的油流几乎没有变动。据估测，十一月上旬的油流可能少于十月份的平均水平。即使在去年，金融危机大规模扩散的时候，西去的油流也经历的一段的逆势上升从十一月份中旬到年末-如果只在有限的范围内来说，是按着油流的季节性周期来的。 Reported westbound spot tanker fixtures have gone up in the recent past, and sailing are likely to show some response in time. But the scale of the seasonal swing this year looks set to be limited. This could help to set the scene for a run down in floating storage in the west through the winter.At this point, floating crude storage is accounting for most of the year-ago difference in crude stocks - after taking account of westbound oil in transit that is mainly destined for US discharge. Westbound oil in transit is set to decline sharply in the period up to mid November. Depending on what happens to US crude stocks in the meantime, the lines should converge. 据报告西行现货油轮装置最近也水涨船高，并且航线也很有可能及时对这个做出反应。但是今年的季节性波动显得非常有限。这个可能让我们想到在西方将会经历一个下滑的趋势在整个冬天。在这一点上，与石油期货不同的是去年同期浮动原油存储占了绝大多数，--在把西去的过境油大多数在美国卸下的情况考虑在内。在西去的过境油流持续急剧下跌直到十一月中旬。同时取决于美国原油市场的情况，价格也应该逐渐靠拢。 Over the next month, the current phase of decline in US crude imports is likely to time out. Long haul arrivals in the region will recover some (not all) of the ground lost through this month, when imports fell in sympathy. What will happen to crude stocks onshore if imports turn north again depends on the path of refinery runs over the next month. The normal seasonal direction is northerly, but refiners may decide otherwise. 在下一个月，美国进口原油下降的趋势可能结束。长期运输的原油到达这些地区的时候可能会带来一些价格的上涨在下一个月，当整个进口都一致下降的时候。下个月在岸的原油期货会发生什么及是否出口会转向北方的国家，这些取决于炼油厂的选择。正常的季节性方向是向北的，但是炼油厂可能决定着这个季节的走向。查看更多0个回答 . 2人已关注
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