感慨国家上的煤化工项目真多，这样是好处多还是坏处多， ...？ 两个不明白： 1。明知道亏本为什么还要上？ 2。中国搞什么什么就会马上不值钱了。。。 这问题好答也不好答。 1。原因大概如下：a）为了急于拿到煤资源，就向地方政府保证要搞某些煤化工项目，项目不赚钱，靠卖煤赚钱来补贴。b）项目可研报告夸大收益，低估成本和风险。比如2006年cmai的报告就说甲醇到2008年开始全球性的过剩，而我*内一些咨询公司设计院研究院和技术推销商在2008年还鼓吹说甲醇能赚钱。国内很缺少那种独立的严谨的技术经济风险评估单位。 下面附上cmai2006 关于甲醇产能过剩的预测： 2。中国搞什么都上马过多，物以稀为贵，太多了就不值钱了。（风险分析里说这是系统风险）。 supply: for over a decade, most new methanol capacity additions have been driven by countries with large oil and/or natural gas reserves, building methanol facilities as a way to transport and monetize their “stranded gas” resources. little new capacity has been based on derivative growth. generally, systematic rationalization has followed at a pace similar to expansion, particularly in the high-cost natural gas based areas like north america and europe. in 2004, the new standard for world-scale methanol capacity, the 1.75 million metric ton (5,000 metric ton per day) atlas unit in trinidad, began operation. in 2005, the second 5,000 metric ton per day facility, again in trinidad, began operation. the next unit of this size, the zagros/iran facility, is fast approaching completion and should be fully operational in early 2007. at least two more units of 5,000 metric tons per day size will follow in the 2007/2008 timeframe. for the five-year period beginning in 2006, almost 24 million metric tons of new capacity has been announced in an industry with an average demand of about 38 million metric tons per year across the same timeline. additional expansions are under study, but less likely to materialize and thus are not included in this study. again, much of this newly planned capacity is not methanol demand driven and is set to “flood” the industry with overcapacity by the 2008/2009 timeframe. 查看更多
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