亚化咨询：进口甲醇发展甲醇制烯烃可行性探讨？ 亚化咨询：进口甲醇发展甲醇制烯烃可行性探讨 2009-8-5 对化工园区而言，乙烯和丙烯是不可或缺的基础原料。但是一些化工园区目前并没有炼油乙烯一体化装置，所需的乙烯和丙烯必须依赖外购。而乙烯和丙烯属于危险化学品，短途运输尚可通过管道，中长距离的运输就要通过压力设备，成本高昂且运力有限。乙烯和丙烯的供应已经成为我国（特别是东南沿海地区）化工园区发展的制约因素。 与此同时，从2008年底开始，大量涌入的廉价进口甲醇的使我国甲醇行业受到冲击。2009年5月，中国商务部对原产于沙特阿拉伯、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和新西兰的进口甲醇进行反倾销调查。 在此背景下，亚化咨询最近完成了的一份研究报告，报告认为，在东南沿海水运便利的条件，在沿海化工园区通过进口甲醇建设甲醇制烯烃(MTO)或甲醇制丙烯（MTP）装置，具备一定的竞争力。一方面投资者，特别是缺乏上有原油资源的石化生产企业可以进行原料的多元化；另一方面，也可为园区下游企业供应乙烯和丙烯原料，以延长产业链，增强竞争力。报告中提到的机遇与潜在的风险分析如下。 利用进口甲醇发展甲醇制烯烃产业具备四个方面的优势和机遇。 1. 甲醇来源丰富，运输便利 沿海地区的化工园区大多临近港口，拥有完善的液体化学品码头与仓储设施。由于国际海运能力过剩，2009年上半年从中东、中南美洲和澳洲地区将甲醇运到亚洲主港地运费只有25美元/吨左右，运输费用较低。 中东和南美地区新建的 天然气甲醇 装置普遍达到单套170万吨/年的规模，具有原料成本低、能耗低所带来的甲醇成本低的优势。亚化咨询的统计数据显示，到2010年全球甲醇产能将超过7000万吨/年，届时全球范围内甲醇产能过剩将成必然。因此进口甲醇发展甲醇制烯烃不会面临原料短缺的问题，并且可以缓解进口甲醇对国产甲醇的冲击。 2. 甲醇制烯烃装置规模灵活 目前的石脑油裂解制百万吨级乙烯装置，需要近200亿元人民币的投资。与此相比，外购甲醇制烯烃装置规模灵活。经济规模为180万吨/年甲醇制60万吨/年烯烃，相应的投资较小；如果采用60万吨/年的甲醇制20万吨/年烯烃，也具备一定的经济性。而与煤炭产地建设的煤制聚烯烃项目相比，外购甲醇制烯烃装置省去了前面的煤气化和甲醇合成工段，也省去了下游的烯烃聚合工段（烯烃产品直供化工园区其他企业），相应地投资也要小很多。 3. 技术具备工业化的条件 采用中科院大连化物所所DMTO技术与鲁奇MTP技术的煤制烯烃工业化装置将在2010年完成试车。道达尔石化与UOP联合开发的先进甲醇制烯烃工艺正在进行准工业化验证。 将于2009年9月3日-4日在北京举办的首届“中国煤制烯烃技术经济研讨会”上，道达尔石化将介绍其位于比利时费卢依(Feluy, Belgium)的全球首创的甲醇制烯烃/烯烃裂解中试装置(MTO/OCP PDU)的最新进展情况。该装置采用UOP公司的MTO技术，总投资4500万欧元，于2008年年末建成启动，将在长期运行的基础上验证包含甲醇制烯烃，烯烃分离，重烯烃裂解，烯烃聚合反应和聚烯烃产品应用在内的一体化工艺流程和放大到百万吨级工业化规模的可靠性。 4. 甲醇制烯烃具备一定的成本竞争力 甲醇制烯烃与石脑油制烯烃的成本比较见下表。虽然其中烯烃成本是乙烯与丙烯的平均成本，但是仍然可以进行粗略的价格对比。 以2009年6月为例，进口甲醇、石脑油和乙烯的平均价格分别为人民币1500元/吨、3400元/吨和5400元/吨，而2007年6月进口甲醇、石脑油和乙烯的平均价格分别为人民币1900元/吨、8500美元/吨和5500元/吨。综合分析进口甲醇、石脑油和乙烯近3年的价格可以看出，用 进口石脑油 制乙烯和用进口甲醇制乙烯的成本互有高低，没有哪一种工艺路线占据明显的成本优势。从这一点也可以说明，进口甲醇制烯烃具备一定的竞争力。 进口甲醇制烯烃也面临着两个潜在的风险： 1. 甲醇价格的波动 虽然目前国内外甲醇价格都比较便宜，但是从甲醇价格的历史走势来看，不排除其价格剧烈波动而大幅度影响进口甲醇制烯烃装置经济性的可能。在这一点上，亚化咨询认为进口甲醇制烯烃装置应该引入国际甲醇供应商参股，通过长期供应合同锁定成本。在这一点上新奥张家港的 二甲醚 装置提供了一个非常好的经验，该装置引入了梅塞尼斯参股20%，获得了稳定而低价的甲醇供应。 2. 国际海运费上涨 海运费在进口甲醇的成本中占据了重要的因素，与2009年上半年从中东、中南美洲和澳洲地区将甲醇运到亚洲主港地运费只有25美元/吨左右相比，2008年国际海运费最高达90多美元/吨。运费的上涨将不得不转嫁给下游用户，即使是进口石脑油制烯烃装置，也同和进口甲醇制烯烃装置一样，要面对国际海运费上涨的风险。 总的来说，进口甲醇发展加甲醇制烯烃与进口石脑油裂解制烯烃装置有共通之处，原料都是液体化学品—甲醇或石脑油，产品都是低碳烯烃。亚化咨询认为，甲醇是一种高载能产品，进口甲醇本质上就是进口加工后的天然气，因此在我国对进口甲醇进行反倾销调查的同时，不妨开拓一下思路，研究进口甲醇的多种用途。亚化咨询建议，考虑到装置建设的灵活性和原料的易获得性，可以考虑在我国东南沿海的化工园区发展甲醇制烯烃。这样将有助于投资者和化工园区的原料多元化，降低原料供应的风险，同时也有利于长远发展和产业链的完善。 ASIACHEM: Analysis of Using Imported Methanol to Develop MTO Project 2009-8-5 Ethylene and propylene are basic raw materials indispensable for most of modern chemical industry parks. However a few of chemical parks so far are not equipped with refinery/cracking complex and depend solely on outsourced olefins. On other hand, ethylene and propylene are hazardous materials usually can be transported through pipelines for short distance, while High Pressure containers are necessary for mid- or long distance delivery, causing high expenses and limited by the equipment. Therefore, supply of ethylene and propylene has become a constraint to the development of chemical parks in China (especially in southeast coast region). At the same time, rush in of inexpensive foreign produced methanol since the end of 2008 caused a great impact on Chinese methanol industry. In May 2009, China Ministry of Commerce initiated anti-dumping investigation against the imported methanol originated from Saudi Arabia , Malaysia , Indonesia and New Zealand . In this background, ASIACHEM recently has completed a research report, which advises the investors, especially the petrochemical producers without upstream Petroleum resources, to build MTO (methanol-to-olefins) or MTP (methanol-to-propylene) plants in chemical parks located in coast area of waterway convenience, and supply olefins to downstream producers by conversion of imported methanol, thus to extend the industrial chains and increase competitive power. The brief feasibility analysis and potential risks are as following shows. On one hand, MTO based on imported methanol has four opportunities at least. 1. Methanol is easily transported and enough supplied Most of chemical parks in coast area are built in adjacency of waterway ports and equipped with complete dock and warehouse facilities. Thanks to the surplus of oversea shipment capacity, freight of methanol from Middle East, Mid-/South America and Australia to main Asian ports was kept at lower level in the first half of 2009, say USD25/t or like. Single plant capacity of 1.7Mt/a is commonly seen in newly built gas-fed methanol plants in Middle East and South America, thereby enjoying cost advantages resulted from inexpensive raw material and lower utility consumption. According to the data from ASIACHEM, global methanol capacity is to exceed 70Mt/a by 2010, when the worldwide surplus is inevitable. Therefore developing MTO based on imported methanol is not expected facing to shortage of feedstock supply in future and it can work as a cushion to resist the impact of import on Chinese methanol industry. 2. MTO plants can be designed with capacity flexibility A naphtha cracker of 1Mt/a ethylene capacity, which is typical in nowadays, calls for capital investment of nearly CNY20bn. In comparison, MTO units based on outsourced methanol can be designed in smaller capacity. Economic capacity of 1.8Mt/a methanol to 600kt/a olefins needs less investment in capital and an even smaller capacity of 600kt/a M to 200kt/a O still makes profitability. Furthermore, in comparison with MTO project located in coal producing area, the units outsourcing methanol may reduce capital investment not only by omission of gasification and methanol synthesis at the front end, but also by directing its product to downstream processors in the same park and without the necessity to build polymerization unit by itself. 3. MTO process is well proven and ready to be industrialized A commercial MTO plant using DMTO (developed by Dalian Institute of Physicals &Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences) and Lurgi MTP process shall complete commissioning stage in 2010. An advanced MTO process jointly developed by TOTAL and UOP is now under demonstration of quasi-industrial scale. In Sep. 3-4, “COAL TO OLEFINS Conference” to be held in Beijing, and TOTAL will be present and introducing the latest update of MTO/OCP PDU (methanol-to-olefins/olefin cracking process pilot demonstration unit) project in Feluy, Belgium, the first of such kind worldwide. UOP developed MTO process is employed in this unit. The unit cost of EURO45mn and started up at the end of 2008. the project is designed to demonstrate, on the basis of long-term operation, a process flow integrating MTO, olefin separation, heavy olefin cracking, olefin polymerization and polyolefin processing, and to verify the reliability of scale-up of the whole process to mega capacity. 4. MTO process is showing cost efficiency Costs of methanol-based and naphtha-based methanol are listed in the following table. Listed olefin costs are averages between ethylene and propylene only to give a rough price comparison. Taking June 2009 for instance, methanol, naphtha and ethylene were imported in this period at the prices of CNY1500/t, 3400/t and 5400/t, comparing the price level of CNYCNY1900/t, 8500/t and 5500/t respectively in June 2007. It can be seen by a general analysis on the import prices of methanol, naphtha and ethylene that the cost of ethylene produced from imported naphtha or imported methanol would be varying and neither route showing determined cost advantage over the other. This can be taken as evidence that MTO based on outsourced methanol is cost competitive. On the other hand, MTO based on imported methanol may face to two risks. 1. Fluctuating price of methanol Although both Chinese and foreign methanol products are currently sold at cheaper price, the possibility can not be excluded that severe price fluctuation, as have seen in the history, may dramatically impact on the profitability of MTO project based on imported methanol. On this issue, ASIACHEM advices that introducing the partnership of overseas methanol producers and peg the raw cost by long-term supply contracts. ENN DME project in Zhangjiagang provided a good example as acquiring of stable and low price methanol supply from Methanex by letting the latter sharing 20% interest of the project. 2. Increase of oversea transportation freight Oversea freight takes a significant portion in the cost of methanol import. Comparing with freight from Middle East, Mid-/ South America and Australia to major Asian ports at the lowest level of USD25/t, the freight was once at a level above USD90/t in 2008. Any increase of freight is always transferred to the downstream users, and the cracker based on imported naphtha needs likely to take the risk of uprising freight just as MTO based on imported methanol. In general, MTO based on imported methanol has analogousness like cracking based on imported naphtha, both are fed with liquid product — methanol or naphtha, and both produce low-carbon olefins. ASIACHEM views methanol as a high energy carriers and import of methanol is in fact the import of processed natural gas. Therefore it is preferable to open the mind and to research multiple uses of imported methanol during the time period of anti-dumping investigation against foreign originated methanol. ASIACHEM advices that the investors can consider MTO projects in chemical industry parks in southeast coast region, as it has good capacity flexibility and feed material availability. Such projects will help both the investors and chemical parks to realize diversification of raw materials to petrochemical plants, to minimize the risk of raw supply, and will be in favor of the long-term development and extension of the product chains. ASIACHEM – The Coal Chemical Consultancy .注$ # ， $ $ 查看更多3个回答 . 5人已关注
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